Convective Outlook: Sun 22 May 2016

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 22 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 23 May 2016

ISSUED 10:31 UTC Sun 22 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

A large-scale 500mb trough with associated cold pool aloft will spread eastwards across the British Isles through Sunday. This combined with daytime heating will produce 1000-500mb lapse rates of in the vicinity of 40C and CAPE values of 500-700j/kg. Light westerly winds will mean that showers are fairly slow-moving and could produce some locally heavy downpours and hail up to 1cm in diameter. Shear values will weaken through the day, but be a little higher in eastern Britain. This combined with local low level convergence in eastern areas (Lincolnshire and western portions of East Anglia) into the early evening could produce some localised flash flooding. Much of this area is on the cusp between ISOL and SLGHT, and a few areas  may be upgraded later today as the situation evolves.