Convective Outlook: Mon 23 May 2016
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 23 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 24 May 2016

ISSUED 19:18 UTC Sun 22 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

The axis of a marked upper trough will slowly move away to the southeast of the UK, however cold air will remain aloft ahead of an upper ridge that will begin to build in from the west during Monday afternoon. Surface to 500mb lapse rates will be similar to Sunday, around 40C, with CAPE values 200-400j/kg. Scattered showers will begin to develop across the ISOL area around midday and then slowly migrate westwards during the course of the afternoon, some becoming heavy with the risk of lightning. Topographic forcing, particularly over N/Cen England will enhance the potential for thunder there, hence the SLGT risk in this area. 


These heavy showers and thunderstorms will be slow moving and likely form along surface convergence and topographic boundaries, thus heavy rain and localised flash flooding will possible. Models suggest localised totals of up to 20-25mm in places under the heaviest showers.